The Play-By-Play of the US and Canada’s Rocky Relationship (4 of 4)

Trade Negotiations are Still Up in the Air

As of March 2026, Canada and the US still haven’t reached a trade deal. The US Supreme Court had struck down the blanket tariffs that Trump had imposed, leading him to apply a 10% tariff on imports from virtually all countries. Canada is looking to mitigate tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, is up for a mandatory review on July 1, 2026, with options to expand, change, or scrap. It’s impossible at this stage to guess what will happen.

So, can the US ever become a reliable partner to Canada again? Although nobody can predict the future, if the 2028 winner wants to repair ties with Canada, he or she had better make Ottawa their first official foreign trip after being sworn in.