Why Democrats think 2026 looks like 2018 (4 of 4)

Trade policy could also become a key issue. Supporters of Trump’s tariffs may argue that they are meant to protect American industries, but critics say they can raise consumer prices and create uncertainty for businesses. Similarly, proposals such as tariff dividend checks may appeal to voters looking for relief, though some economists warn they could add pressure to inflation or interest rates.

Inflation remains one of the biggest political challenges. If voters feel that their everyday costs are still too high, Democrats may have an opportunity to present themselves as a stronger alternative on affordability, economic stability, and household financial relief.

The Democrats aren’t without their own problems. For instance, the Democratic Party is viewed far more unfavorably (-24 points) than Republicans (-13 points). Furthermore, Democrats still face internal divisions between the progressive and moderate wings of the party, which could complicate their broader message. Even so, midterm elections often become a judgment on the party currently in power rather than a direct endorsement of the opposition. If voters remain focused on affordability, economic uncertainty, and the direction of the country, Democrats could be well positioned to compete for control of the House and potentially make the Senate more competitive as well.