Things are not looking good for the House Republicans at the moment. Polls show that if the midterm elections were held tomorrow, there would be a significant blue wave. In fact, various polls indicate that the 2026 midterms might look a lot like 2018, when the Democrats gained 41 House seats.
Generic congressional election polling shows the Democrats with a 14-point (55 percent to 41 percent) edge, the largest advantage the party has held since 2017. In addition, Independents are leaning towards Democratic candidates by a significant 33-point margin (61 percent to 28 percent).
These polls align with a recent Marquette Law School survey that currently gives the Democrats a 9-point lead (53 percent to 44 percent) among those who identify themselves as “absolutely certain” to vote.
During typical election cycles, generic congressional polling indicates narrow races. For instance, in the two most recent elections—2022 and 2024—the Republicans were favored by 2.5 points and half a point, respectively, and both elections ultimately ended up very close.
However, when generic polling gives a particular party a large lead, landslides are almost always the result.
Plenty could still change between now and Election Day. The margins could narrow, for instance. Recent decisions by the Virginia Supreme Court nullifying that state’s voters’ redistricting approval and the US Supreme Court neutering the 1964 Voting Rights Act could also have a negative impact on the Democrats. Nonetheless, dissatisfaction with current policies, rising gas prices, and Democrats’ position out of power could all benefit the party’s candidates.
Why Democrats think 2026 looks like 2018 